This afternoon begins one of these pointless Cup competitions in England. There's a history of some pretty large upsets in these tournaments in recent history, but it seems as though the best way to go is to actually lay the goal(s) in the earlier rounds, particularly in spreads of only one division. When a team, say in Championship, takes on a good team from D-II, weird things tend to happen... but it seems as though from my experience last year and the history of these Cups that the teams that are supposed to win, do at an alarming rate, particularly when they get to play at home. Also, we can count on probably 5 games or so that are complete blowouts for the "better" team. There are certain teams I wouldn't touch with a 10 foot pole that are playing horribly to start the season, though some of these "better" teams will look to take their frustrations out on their struggles early in the season for certain.
Today we have Southampton, coming off of a successful result against Norwich facing Southend, a recently promoted team from D-II to D-I. Southend will be without one of their strikers who picked up a red card in their most recent D-I game against Huddersfield, while I have know nothing on what Harry plans on doing with Southampton. These teams in the lower divisions have to play these games out for the money involved... The Premiership teams could care less, though two of them will almost certainly play in the final once again. Southampton I'd have to imagine is a sort of bubble team. I don't know whether they would care enough about this Cup to put their best available 11 on the field, as they fully expect promotion back to the Premiership this year.
But this is just today's example. Crystal Palace seems to be the most likely team to just destroy someone. They draw Walsall at home, and though they are a 1.25 goal favorite, they don't have the pressures of playing away from home, and they might be looking for a boost to their season after a horrid start to the year.
Here are the stats from the past two years of Carling Cup action in round 1...
2004...
Team from the higher division: 22-8 (22 wins in 90 minutes, 8 losses)
Team from higher division vs. a -1 handicap: 13-9
Team from higher division at home: 13-1
2003...
Team from higher division: 17-14
Team from higher division vs. a -1 hc: 9-14
Team from higher division at home: 10-5
As you can see, 23-6 for the higher division home team seems pretty golden to me, as many of these games were by fairly high margins. Also of note is that there are only 7 teams that have to cover more than a goal (and most of those are -1.25), meaning many others are -0.75 or so.
I know this is a "square" thing to put out there, but even squares win sometimes... 39-22 outright in 90 minutes for the better team is pretty impressive, as is 23-6 for those at home. Just throwing the information out there.
Today we have Southampton, coming off of a successful result against Norwich facing Southend, a recently promoted team from D-II to D-I. Southend will be without one of their strikers who picked up a red card in their most recent D-I game against Huddersfield, while I have know nothing on what Harry plans on doing with Southampton. These teams in the lower divisions have to play these games out for the money involved... The Premiership teams could care less, though two of them will almost certainly play in the final once again. Southampton I'd have to imagine is a sort of bubble team. I don't know whether they would care enough about this Cup to put their best available 11 on the field, as they fully expect promotion back to the Premiership this year.
But this is just today's example. Crystal Palace seems to be the most likely team to just destroy someone. They draw Walsall at home, and though they are a 1.25 goal favorite, they don't have the pressures of playing away from home, and they might be looking for a boost to their season after a horrid start to the year.
Here are the stats from the past two years of Carling Cup action in round 1...
2004...
Team from the higher division: 22-8 (22 wins in 90 minutes, 8 losses)
Team from higher division vs. a -1 handicap: 13-9
Team from higher division at home: 13-1
2003...
Team from higher division: 17-14
Team from higher division vs. a -1 hc: 9-14
Team from higher division at home: 10-5
As you can see, 23-6 for the higher division home team seems pretty golden to me, as many of these games were by fairly high margins. Also of note is that there are only 7 teams that have to cover more than a goal (and most of those are -1.25), meaning many others are -0.75 or so.
I know this is a "square" thing to put out there, but even squares win sometimes... 39-22 outright in 90 minutes for the better team is pretty impressive, as is 23-6 for those at home. Just throwing the information out there.
